ROLLKIND / 04

Repeated chance

Find the chance of at least one success in independent attempts.

YOUR LITTLE WORKBENCH

Repeated chance

ON YOUR DEVICE ✦

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THE METHOD / 01

A clear wayfrom start to finish.

At least one = 1 − (1−p)^attempts. Expected success count = attempts × p.

01

A worked example

Three attempts at 50% each give an 87.5% chance of at least one success.

02

Keep the assumptions clear

Only independent identical attempts. Not a prediction of an individual outcome.

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A FEW USEFUL ANSWERS

Good to know.

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ROLLKIND / TOOLKIT

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